Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
